November 21, 2014

Handicapping the gubernatorial recall

As the stare prepares for a likely recall election against Governor Scott Walker, one political scientist says the odds are in favor of the governor keeping his job.

UW-Milwaukee professor Mordecai Lee says Walker has the advantage of being an incumbent with nearly unlimited funds and a highly mobilized base of support. If the election takes place over the summer, Lee says that could also help Walker, because Republicans tend to do better in low-turnout elections.

Still, Lee admits Democrats will be putting plenty of resources in to campaigning against Walker and will still have a lot of momentum coming out of the recall petition drive, which resulted in over one million signatures against the governor. Lee says he expects the race will be very close, although the former Democratic lawmaker notes that it’s far too early to make an accurate prediction.

The Government Accountability Board is continuing its work to review petitions filed against the governor, lieutenant governor, and four Republican state Senators. The earliest the board is expected to certify the recalls would be in mid-March, putting possible elections in late spring at the earliest.

AUDIO: John Colbert reports (:39)