The national and state economies have further contracted since December, as the recession enters its sixteenth month. That, according to the quarterly Wisconsin Economic Outlook (PDF) from the Department of Revenue. A bright spot? Revenue Secretary Roger Ervin says the Education and Health Services sector is expected to add jobs this year, since the sector is less dependent on global markets.
And those global markets have yet to rebound, meaning the economic downturn continues for the forseeable future. "We are going to see economic slowdown in our state as well," Ervin says. "Most of the experts right now are predicting the end of 2010 or the start of 2011 as the start of a recovery." Ervin expects state tax revenues will continue to decline this year, although not as steeply as in the last several months.
A special report in the outlook analyzes the $5.2 billion in tax benefits for Wisconsin families and businesses included as part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) signed by President Obama in February. Among the incentives for Wisconsin citizens are $2.3 billion through the Making Work Pay Credit and $141.5 million in increased Earned Income Tax Credits available to low-income working families.
Wisconsin personal income growth remains stalled in 2009, with a recovery expected to begin in 2010. The outlook shows that real per capita income in Wisconsin declined 0.5% in 2008 but, aided by the deflationary outlook in 2009, will grow by an expected 0.5% this year.