The latest Marquette University Law School Poll shows Governor Scott Walker with a slight lead over his Democratic challenger. For the first time since March, the governor led Democrat Mary Burke by more than the margin of error for the poll. Among likely voters, Walker had a 50-45 advantage over his challenger, a change of about two points from a similar poll released in mid-September.
Walker led Burke 46 to 45 percent among registered voters in the latest poll, although pollster Charles Franklin says likely voters are a better number to watch as the election draws closer. Franklin says there’s “an enormous difference between them and everyone else.” In particular, he notes that enthusiasm is much higher among likely voters, compared to not likely voters. Enthusiasm can be an indicator of how likely someone is to cast a vote on Election Day.
The poll was conducted between September 25th and 28th, about a week after stories broke about Wisconsin being 33rd in the nation for job creation and that portions of Mary Burke’s jobs plan had been copied from candidates in other states. While about half of the respondents had heard about each of those issue, Franklin says most did not believe they would change their vote. About 73 percent of respondent said the copying claims made no difference, while 65 percent said the same about Wisconsin’s job ranking.
Meanwhile, in the race for attorney general, Republican candidate Brad Schimel led Democrat Susan Happ 41-39 among likely voters, 19 percent saying they are undecided. Among registered voters, Schimel and Happ were tied 37-37, with 22 percent still unsure who they would vote for.
The margin of error for the poll among likely voters was 4.1 percent.