Republican Governor Scott Walker picks up a seven point lead over his Democratic challenger Mary Burke in the final Marquette University Law School poll of this election cycle. Professor Charles Franklin is the poll director. “Walker at 50, Burke at 43.” Franklin points out it’s “a substantial increase from an even tie two weeks ago.”
That seven point lead is among likely voters.
Franklin says the gap between the two candidates is tighter among registered voters, with Walker at 46 and Burke at 45. “So what you’re seeing here in the contrast between all registered voters and a one point race, and all likely voters in a seven point race is just how important differential turnout is.”
Franklin reminds voters, “Polls don’t vote; people do.”
Joe Zepecki is communications director at Burke for Wisconsin. He says the race is “too close to call and going to come down to turnout.” Walker has maintained all along the only poll that matters is on November 4th.
Franklin says it’s the “likely” voter numbers that are more predictive of election outcomes, but that can change.
The poll interviewed 1,409 registered voters, including 1,164 likely voters, by landline and cell phone Oct. 23-26. For the full sample of 1,409 registered voters, the margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points. The margin of error for the sample of 1,164 likely voters is +/- 3.0 percentage points. This is the final Marquette Law School Poll before the Nov. 4 election.