A new analysis predicts that Wisconsin could make it through the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic without facing a shortage in hospital beds.

But it’s a projection that can change as new data becomes available. It also relies on the social distancing ordered by Governor Tony Evers being maintained and adhered to.

The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics & Evaluation projection for every state showed as of Sunday that Wisconsin’s peak resource use will come in 53 days, on May 22. By Monday, the data had already changed, indicating the state would peak in 26 days, on April 26.

That projection indicates social distancing measures could work as intended, flattening the curve of new COVID-19 infections, if Wisconsin residents continue to stay in place and stay at home.

The University of Washington projection has the U.S. reaching peak resource use in just 15 days, on April 15, with a shortage of more than 61,000 hospital beds. New York state is expected to be harder hit, peaking in nine days.

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