Barack Obama holds significant leads over John McCain in eight crucial Midwest states, according to a poll conducted by the University of Wiscosin and seven other universities in the Big Ten Conference.
Those states were key battlegrounds in the 2004 election, and last month the Big Ten Battleground Poll showed a tight race in all of those states but Illinois, which Obama represents in the U.S. Senate. The first poll was taken just as the U.S. financial crisis first intensified and before the massive decline in the stock market, when McCain was enjoying his highest poll numbers of the campaign in the Big Ten and nationally.
The new Big Ten poll shows Obama ahead in every Big Ten state, including Indiana, where McCain held a slight edge in September, and Ohio and Pennsylvania, where last month's poll results showed the two candidates in a dead heat.
Big Ten Battleground Poll head-to-head results for individual states:
Illinois – Obama 61%, McCain 32% N=572
Indiana – Obama 51%, McCain 41% N=586
Iowa – Obama 52%, McCain 39% N=586
Ohio – Obama 53%, McCain 41% N=564
Michigan – Obama 58%, McCain 36% N=562
Minnesota – Obama 57%, McCain 38% N=583 Pennsylvania – Obama 52%, McCain 41%, N=566 Wisconsin – Obama 53%, McCain 40% N=584
The poll also included a nationally representative sample of 1,014 respondents, with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. That survey shows Obama with a 9-point margin over McCain, 52 percent to 43 percent.
The individual surveys of between 562 and 586 randomly selected registered voters and those likely to register to vote before the election in each of the states were conducted by phone with live interviewers from Oct. 19-22 and were co-directed by University of Wisconsin-Madison political scientists Charles Franklin and Ken Goldstein with the cooperation of colleagues from participating Big Ten universities. The polls each have a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points. The states included in the poll were Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois and Minnesota, home to the 11 universities in the Big Ten conference.
The poll also included a nationally representative sample of 1,014 respondents, with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. That survey shows Obama with a 9-point margin over McCain, 52 percent to 43 percent.
The sample of registered voters and those likely to register to vote before the 2008 Presidential election for the state and national surveys was selected by random digit dialing (RDD) of landline phones. Cell-only households were not included in the sample.
Universities participating in the partnership are the University of Illinois, the University of Iowa, the University of Michigan, Michigan State University, Northwestern University, Ohio State University, Penn State University and UW-Madison.