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Joe Biden maintains steady lead over President Trump in Marquette poll

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The final Marquette Law School poll is in and Joe Biden continues to hold a 5 point lead over President Trump among likely voters.

“With likely voters it’s 48% for Biden, 43% for Trump and 2% for Jorgensen. We still have 8% saying they’ll not vote or they’re undecided or they declined to say who they’re voting for.” Poll director Charles Franklin says that hasn’t changed much. 

“We had a 5-point margin three weeks ago and we had a 4-point margin in early September so as we’ve seen since May this has been a very stable race.”

That lead is a much more conservative number than the 9 point lead in the UW-Madison polling or a 17 point lead in the ABC News/Washington Post poll.

Other insights in this poll shows that Biden is now leading among older Wisconsinites. Biden is up a single point over Trump in voters aged 45-59, and leads by five in voters over 60.

Respondents to the poll continue to think that Governor Tony Evers is doing a good job at leading Wisconsin. 50 percent approve while 43 percent disapprove. That number is down slightly from earlier this month.

Wisconsinites are also upset with the Legislature for failing to act. 50 percent of respondents disapprove of the state’s lawmakers, while only 36 percent approve of them.

Wausau lawmaker apologizes for not disclosing OWI arrest

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A central Wisconsin lawmaker is apologizing for not disclosing a OWI arrest.

The Wausau Pilot and Review reports that Assemblyman Pat Snyder was arrested for drunk driving in 2018. This was Snyder’s second OWI arrest, but since it was over 10 years after his first OWI arrest, it was not treated as a misdemeanor.

Snyder apologized in a letter to the Pilot, and said that he re-enrolled himself in alcohol abuse counselling following the arrest. Snyder has publicly claimed he’s had issues with alcoholism in the past.

Wisconsin is the only state where first-time OWI is a traffic offense and not a criminal case.

Trump touts USMCA, Big Ten football during visit to Central Wisconsin Airport

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President Trump spoke to a crowd of thousands at Central Wisconsin Airport in Mosinee on Thursday night, and railed against Democrat presidential candidate Joe Biden and other democrats.

Trump took credit for pushing for a reopening of Big Ten football. 

“But I want to congratulate the Big Ten Conference on yesterday’s announcement that the fall season will start very soon! Oh, I hope your team does well after all that, I hope that team does well.”

Trump complimented UW Athletics director Barry Alvarez, and said that students should have a chance to play well and get a job in the NFL. “But these are players that have a shot at the NFL, they have a shot at pro football. We want the NFL to proudly stand when they sing our national anthem, huh?”

He then criticized the NFL for allowing teams to make political statements.

Also among Thursday night’s topics was the new USMCA, which he tried to connect to farm relief for Wisconsin dairy farmers. 

“They had something called specialty milk! Does anybody know what that is? Right you know… a lot of people…  it’s a small little grouping of milks! Specialty milk! But this was the final straw, and I met some people. But Canada finally did it to them like they did it to everybody else, and they raised the tariffs massively, they made it impossible.”

The President announced a new aid package that he said would help the state’s dairy and cranberry farmers.

Trump promoted former Congressman Sean Duffy as a possible candidate for Wisconsin governor in 2022. 

“He’s fantastic because I know he’s coming back into government in some form! He can come with us, he can stay here… he can maybe run for governor or maybe do something?  Sean Duffy!”

Duffy vacated the 7th Congressional district seat last year and was replaced by Northwoods legislator Tom Tiffany in a special election.

One notable Republican who did not make it out to last night’s presidential rally in Mosinee was Senator Ron Johnson, and that’s because he’s been quarantined. 

Johnson’s office reported on Thursday that the Senator was exposed to someone who has now tested positive for COVID-19. Johnson had been planning to make the trip to Mosinee with President Trump. He will instead be quarantined until at least September 29th. His office says that Johnson has not been showing symptoms of the coronavirus. 

Joe Biden retains lead over President Trump in latest round of Marquette Law School Poll

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The latest Marquette Law School Poll is out, and the presidential race hasn’t changed much, despite two conventions and visits from the candidates.

Poll director Charles Franklin says there’s been little movement in the presidential preference question. 

“A month ago it was 49% for Biden, 44% for Trump, a 5% Biden margin there. This month is 47% for Biden, 43% for Trump, a four point margin.”

Franklin says that the favorability ratings for both Joe Biden and President Trump remain stable, despite appearances in Wisconsin and the two conventions.

“But I think the bottom line is we don’t see a convention bounce for either candidate in this key measure of favorability.”

Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen got 4 percent in the poll, and Franklin says he’ll keep asking about third party candidates right up through the election. 

“Often we see a tightening of the race and the third party vote tends to go down if the presidential race looks close and we’ll just watch that now through October and we’ll see.”

Other notable findings in the poll are that respondents with school age children now feel less sure about sending their children to in person classes as opposed to early August. Only 44 percent of parents said they were comfortable, compared to 53 percent in August.

Approval of Tammy Baldwin remains above her disapproval ratings, 42 to 35, but people’s opinions of Senator Ron Johnson have dipped, with only 32 percent in favor and 36 percent against.

Polling was done over the last weekend in August, and has around a 4 point margin of error.

‘Failure not an option’ for co-chairs of Speakers Task Force on Racial Disparities

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Failure is not an option. That’s the message from the co-chairs of Assembly Speaker Robin Vos’ Task Force on Racial Disparities.

State Representative Sheila Stubbs (D-Madison), has accepted the role of co-chair.

“We cannot allow another unarmed Black person to be shot, and or killed,” Stubbs said. “Let me be clear, this task force is not a substitute for action. And it is not the solution. But it is a step forward.”

“I am not going to fail. Failure’s not an option, for me.” Stubbs says politics will need to be left at the door, in order for the task force to meaningfully address Wisconsin’s worst in the nation disparities for Black families.

Stubbs will be joined as co-chair by Assembly Majority Leader Jim Steinke (R-Kaukana). “And like Representative Stubbs, I don’t get involved in efforts only to see them fail.”

Stubbs said she expects the first meeting to happen before the end of this month, with meetings every two to three weeks after that, up to the start of a new legislative session in January.

UW Elections Research Center prepares for presidential polling

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As the nation approaches Election Day, the question remains: can we trust the polls?

UW Madison Elections Research Center director Barry Burden says that polling, while flawed, still remains the best tool to keep tally on people’s potential votes. 

“Letters to the editor or interviewing people at rallies, or focus groups are all really helpful, but they don’t give you a picture of the full electorate where each person’s opinion is weighed equally and where it’s designed to represent the full set of voters or the full set of residents of the state.”

Burden says pollsters will need to take a serious look at how people respond differently to polling over the phone rather than online polling. 

“Now that could just be because phone surveys reach a different sort of person than an internet survey does, after all it’s a very different methodology. But it might also be that people online are are more willing to express unpopular views.”

While the polls accurately predicted the final popular vote of the 2016 election, they failed to catch the surge of rural voting that pushed President Trump over the edge in the Electoral College.

The Elections Center will be doing more polling of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, all of which flipped from Democrat to Republican in the 2016 elections, after narrow victories by President Trump.

Republican-controlled legislature takes no action on special session

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Rep. Sheila Stubbs

Both chambers of the Republican-controlled Wisconsin legislature on Monday quickly gaveled in and gaveled out  of a special session on police reforms called by Governor Tony Evers.

Member’s the legislature’s Black Caucus spoke before that, including Representative Sheila Stubbs (D-Madison), who pointed out that Wisconsin is the worst state in the nation in which to raise a Black family

“Yes, 44 percent of our Black children are living in poverty, yes, 13.2 percent of Black children in Wisconsin are found to have elevated blood lead levels. We must dismantle and break down these barriers, because they are fatal. Wisconsin has the highest infant mortality rate for Black babies, nationwide.”

“Republicans need to find the morality to address these issues, not just the use of force reform, but the disparities facing our communities of color,” said Senator LaTonya Johnson (D-Milwaukee). We don’t need a study committee to verify what we already know.”

In the Assembly, where Speaker Robin Vos has formed a task force on racial disparities, Majority Leader Jim Steineke said any legislative action would likely be after January.

Governor Tony Evers said that’s not good enough. “The people of Wisconsin don’t want another task force or more delays — they want action and results, and they want it today, not tomorrow or some day months down the road,” Evers said, calling the failure to act is a letdown for all of Wisconsin.

Wisconsin Senate to convene special session on Monday

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The Wisconsin Senate plans to convene Monday for a special session to discuss police reform. Governor Tony Evers on Monday ordered lawmakers in both chambers back to Madison, following the shooting of Jacob Blake in the back Sunday by a Kenosha police officer.

Evers wants lawmakers to work on a package of police reform bills which he first introduced in June.

Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald said they’ll do that, as well as considering other legislation by Republican state Senator Van Wangaard.

Fitzgerald’s office said it is not a full floor session, but a procedural move to “open up” the session. No word on Assembly action.

Conservation lobby group releases annual ‘Scorecard’

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It was a disappointing legislative session for Wisconsin Conservation Voters. Jennifer Giegerich is Government Affairs Director for the environmental lobby group, which released its annual Conservation Scorecard this week.

“Not a single clean water bill addressing root causes of water pollution passed this session,” Giegerich said. “And there was not even a single public hearing addressing climate change, one of the top issues addressing our planet.”

The group inducted Speaker Robin Vos into its “Conservation Dishonor Roll” – the only lawmaker to earn that distinction this year. “When we looked at every bad bad bill or any bad situation that came up over the past legislative session, we kept coming back to Speaker Vos being the root cause of it.” Vos’ office did not respond to a request for comment.

Jeff Lamont of Marinette, a community where PFAs contamination remains a major concern, was on a media call this week announcing the group’s Scorecard.

“It was so frustrating . . . that we worked so hard on drafting this legislation with Senator Hansen’s office, and then bringing (Rep. John) Nygren and him together for a compromise bill, and having Vos just shut it down, not even bringing it to a vote,” Lamont said.

While great hopes were pinned on the Speaker’s Task Force on Water Quality at the time Vos announced it’s formation, Giegrich charges it was “a sham,” which accomplished little.

“There were 13 bills that were introduced by the water quality task force. And rather than being a substantive package that would tackle long term problems like nitrate contamination in rural areas, or addressing new issues like setting standards for PFAs, these bills were . . . very small in scope. Almost half of them would have had almost no impact on water quality. And then three of those bills would have actually set us back for protecting water quality in the state of Wisconsin.”

While the package of bills did pass the Assembly with bipartisan support in February, none of the measure were subsequently taken up by the state Senate.

Blank says UW-Madison faces ‘financial crisis’

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Chancellor Rebecca Blank

The chancellor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison says the state’s flagship campus is “in a real financial crisis.”

Chancellor Rebecca Blank blames the challenging situation the school faces as the fall semester approaches on the coronavirus pandemic.

Blank told the Rotary Club of Madison that how bad things will get depends on factors like students who are enrolled for the fall semester actually showing up, how deep state budget cuts are, and whether lawmakers give the university the authority it needs to borrow money.

Interim UW System President Tommy Thompson said he will make a personal appeal to Governor Tony Evers and members of the legislature to spare the UW in the next round of budget cuts. The UW already announced system-wide administrative cuts earlier this month.