The latest Marquette University Law School Poll offers a look at how Wisconsin voters are leaning in the presidential race.
The survey of voters shows Republican Donald Trump claiming the lead among likely primary voters in the state, with 24 percent of voters supporting him. He’s followed by Marco Rubio at 18 percent, Ted Cruz at 16 percent. It’s a big shift from the results of the last poll in November, which showed retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson leading the field with 22-percent. Carson dropped to eight percent in the latest poll.
Among likely Democratic primary voters, Hillary Clinton continued to lead in her push for the nomination. However, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has continued to close the gap between the two of them. Clinton had 45 percent support, compared to 43 percent for Sanders. In November, Clinton was at 50 percent and Sanders at 41.
Poll director Charles Franklin cautioned that the numbers are likely to change dramatically in the coming weeks, after the presidential primary season kicks off next Monday night with the Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire holds its primary a week later. “History shows a lot of scrambling of people’s expectations after that first set of votes,” he said.
That scrambling is likely reflected in the results of another question in the poll – who voters think the eventual nominee of each party will be, regardless of who they support. Franklin said
Trump was the solid leader among Republicans, with 49 percent believing he will get the nomination. For Democrats, 65 percent think Hillary Clinton will be the nominee.
The poll of 806 registered voters was conducted January 21-24. It had an almost even split among Republican and Democratic respondents, giving it a margin of error of +/- 6.5 percent.