As Wisconsin voters head to the polls Tuesday, political observers say turnout and national political trends could play a major role in determining the outcome of races for governor, the state Legislature and Congress.
UW-La Crosse political science professor Anthony Chergosky said voter participation is especially important in midterm elections, when turnout is typically lower than during presidential election years.
“Turnout matters so much in midterm elections because we do see a significant dip in voter turnout comparing midterm elections to presidential elections. We see quite a few people who voted in the presidential election stay home during midterm years. So much of a midterm election comes down to turnout,” Chergosky said.
Control of the Wisconsin State Senate is among the stakes on Tuesday’s ballot. Chergosky said Democrats have opportunities to flip several competitive Senate seats, but whether they succeed may depend on who shows up to vote.
National political factors could also influence the results. Chergosky said voters often use midterm elections as a way to express support for or dissatisfaction with the president, even when the president is not on the ballot.
“Oftentimes you can predict midterm election results very well just by looking at the approval rating of the president, where even though the president is not on the ballot, voters approach the midterm election as an expression of approval or disapproval of the sitting president,” he said.
The governor’s race could have implications beyond the executive branch. Chergosky said strong performance at the top of the ticket often boosts legislative candidates from the same party.
“What we see when we’re analyzing the outcomes of state legislative elections is that a strong candidate for governor can really do a lot to help their state legislative candidates, kind of like a rising tide lifts all boats. When the top of the ticket does well for a party, the rest of the ticket does well,” Chergosky said.
Wisconsin voters will cast ballots Tuesday in races for governor, seats in the State Legislature and Wisconsin’s congressional delegation, with the results helping determine the balance of power at both the state and federal levels.