One week out from a historic recall election, polls show Governor Scott Walker with a five to six point lead over recall challenger Tom Barrett. Marquette Law School pollster Charles Franklin notes polling has consistently shown Walker with a narrow lead over the Milwaukee Mayor. “The average of all the polls is about a six point lead, with some indication of tightening from the Barrett campaign’s polling that they’ve been putting out,” says Franklin. “We’ve seen three polls at five points and one at six.”
With margins of error of four to five points, Franklin says the race is still competitive, and the outcome is all about turnout. “I think the question here is going to be, ho high is turnout from both parties, and does one side get and extra boost of turnout that pushes them well into victory,” Franklin says. Neither side can afford to have anybody stay home. “I think that would be the worst decision for supporters of either candidate. Regardless of the polling, all of it agrees this is a close enough race, that turnout and participation can make a difference. It’s certainly not a race that’s guaranteed for either candidate.”
Also consistent across all polls: an extremely low number of undecided voters, around three to five percent. “That’s unusually low, especially for a gubernatorial election,” says Franklin. “But, we’re in an unusual election, in that we’ve something close to sixteen months to think about this, in terms of the whole set of controversies.” The final Marquette Law School poll prior to the June 5th election will be released on Wednesday.
